Search This Blog

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Facebook as a blue chip

The Wall Street Journal tells of Mark Zuckerberg's ambition to make Facebook a blue chip. A blue chip, in stock market lingo, is the perception of certain stocks as having a long lasting high intrinsic value. The stocks that are usually mentioned as blue chips are giants such as WalMart, Macdonalds,  Exxon Mobile. Like all stock investment  terms, and to a greater extent, like all economic terms, one cannot ignore the psychological aspect. Blue chips were at the past only "old technology". The internet Boom and Bust of the late 1990s was a great proof why new technology should be considered and valued carefully. And yet, technology giants like Microsoft, Intel, Apple, Google and Oracle are considered by many as blue chips, despite their relatively short existence, and serious doubts regarding their chances to be thriving multinational corporations in 50 years time. IBM, on the other hand, has proved its ability to survive and change through the years as a truly thriving giant, and Investors legend Warren Buffet himself has recognized this 'bluish chipness' characteristic of IBM when he made his first ever purchase into a technology based company.

The real problem with the idea of Facebook as a blue chip is the nearing IPO time. It is clear that investors are being tempted to think of Facebook as different from Myspace, Zynga or Linkedin, so that investors shall not fear a change of fate for Facebook's success as the world's leading social network, or a plummeting stock price shortly after the IPO, due to investors realizing that the towers have been prematurely built on air, as the underlying financial data do not justify the stock price. The solution is simple - to sell investors the idea that Facebook is here to stay.

I have serious doubts about Facebook's long term prospects, as can easily be deduced from past posts
(such as the ones regarding - the company's relationship with some of its content producers (Zynga); the hardships of controlling both infrastructure and content for a long time; the difficulties of maintaining the world's largest social network with the increasing floods of information). I have no doubt in my mind that Facebook's future will be quite similar to Apple's roller coaster ride of the last 25 years. During this ride there will be ample opportunities for careful investors to purchase Facebook at a cheap price, assuming the fully disclosed financial  data will justify such a move. Until then (and always, actually), any investor should remember to follow the ancient rule: Caveat emptor

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

בשבחי הטאבלטים

יש לי חיבה רבה לכתיבתו של יובל דרור, אך במאמר בדה-מארקר המנסה להסביר מדוע הטאבלטים לא יחליפו את המחשב האישי, לפחות בזמן הקרוב הוא שגה בכמה נקודות בסיסיות.

הראשונה היא עצם הטעות המצערת של תפישת המושג טאבלט באמצעות האייפאד. סגירות אלגנטית ונקייה מאפיינת את מוצרי אפל כולם - לרבות הPC-ים של אפל לדורותיהם. אבל יש עוד טאבלטים שמייצגים גישות אחרות לגמרי. וגם במוצרים של אפל, קצת חשיבה מחוץ לקופסא מאפשרת לך להרגיש חופש ולנקוט בפעולות שממש מזכירות את החיים ב-PC עם חלונות או לינוקס.

השניה היא באי-חלוקת תפקידיו השונים של ה-PC. עצם הפופולריות העצומה של האייפאד מבטאת היבט אחד שבו ה-PC לעולם לא יהיה עוד המלך: צריכת תוכן דיגיטלי. לגבי מוזיקה וסרטים אולי עוד קשה להסכים איתי, אבל בכל מה שנוגע לקריאת טקסט מי שהתנסה ב-E-readers (ובראשם, כרגע, המלך קינדל) לא ישוב להסתייע ב-PC אם רק יוכל.

השלישית בחוסר המודעות לכך שה-PC, כבר היום,  אינו המוביל. כבר כיום נמכרים ברחבי העולם יותר מחשבים ניידים ממחשבים שולחניים. חלקם משמשים כתחליף מחשב שולחני. חלקם, כמו המק-בוק אייר מבהירים עד כמה השאלה מיהו מחשב נייד ומיהו טאבלט הולכת להיות מבלבלת בשנים הקרובות. כשסופרים בגדר המחשבים האישיים גם את כל ההתקנים (התקן במובן gadget) החכמים, כמו הטאבלטים והפלאפונים החכמים וזוכרים שבחלק ממדינות העולם ההתקנים האלה מהווים תחליף למחשב אישי, התמונה רק נעשית מורכבת יותר.   ועם המחשבה הזו בראש, כשמביטים על הקטע המביך ביותר במאמר - ההשוואה של הPC המאפשר למשתמש להיות פעיל עם הטאבלט ההופך אותו להיות סביל, קשה שלא להרגיש חמלה לכותב. כל ההתקנים החכמים למיניהם מאפשרים יצירתיות. מסך מגע מאפשר רק יצירתיות גדולה יותר ויותר, ומספיק מבט אחד בMicrosoft surface כדי להבין זאת. זה לא המכשיר שמאפשר או מגביל יצירתיות - זה מה שאתה עושה איתו.

כל זה כמובן לא בא לומר שה-PC מת. אנחנו בתהליך שבו עצם משמעות המונח "המחשב האישי" עובר שינוי. השלב הבא הוא שלב של גיוון. מופלא, כיפי ומהנה, שבסופו, עד כמה שזה יהיה מעציב, נראה התכנסות. הטובים ביותר ישרדו. ואני מוכן להמר שבאותו שלב נראה כמה מחשבים שולחניים חזקים, כמה טאבלטים חזקים וכמה סמארטפונים חזקים, לצדם של המכשירים החכמים של המחר - השולחן, הכסא, המקרר וכל השאר... נדמה שמבחינות מסויימות גל העתיד הפחיד את יובל דרור, ממש כפי שסטיב ג'ובס המנוח גרס לגבי אנשי PC.

קשה להתייחס לכל אמירה לא-מדוייקת במאמר ולתקנה. אבל היתה אמירה צורמת במיוחד במאמר של דרור על הגברת הזקנה מרדמונד סיאטל, "שבשנים האחרונות מתקשה לייצר דברים מגניבים". את Surface כבר הזכרתי, אבל בואו נשים אותו בצד, ונתייחס לדבר האמיתי שמתרחש ברגעים אלה - קינקט, אולי המוצר המגניב ביותר של השנים האחרונות, ואחד המועמדים המובילים למהפכה של ממש בכל מה שאנחנו יודעים על ממשק למשתמש. בקרוב הוא מגיע לPC

Monday, December 12, 2011

3 tales of corporate's common sense and social responsibility

What do Apple, Google and HP have in common ? they are corporations, committed to competition, and strive to compete. But inside the competition one sometimes forget, even if one is a corporation (or especially so) that not every mean is proper for that final end of being the most competitive.

I ran into 3 stories today, and each reiterates that sad lesson, how far competition can drive corporations, somtimes....

Lets start with Apple. Some of Apple's recent actions have made it look like a Parents Troll itself, but we all know that Apple is much more than that. But now TechCrunch comes with a sad tale, revealing what appears to be Apple's deal with a devil of sorts - a known Patents Troll. If true, this story of Apple negotiation with a Patents Troll, reaching in an undisclosed agreement in which Apple transferred several patents to the troll in exchange for a usage license in all involved patents, is very sad. Although one's first thought might be to praise Apple's business genius, being able to make a nagging Troll into another weapon in its wars against competitors, it soon becomes clear how cowardly and anti social this policy may be. If true, instead of fighting and making Patent Trollism go away, Apple has fed the Troll and made it stronger.

Only minutes after reading about Apple, I ran into an interesting story about Google. A recent report testing the security of the 3 top browsers and revealing Firefox lags behind chrome and iExplorer significantly. The research focused on a very interesting angle of security: what can be done from within the browser, assuming the hacker has gotten this far, stressing on Sandboxing, Javascript JIT hardening and Plugins security. My problem ? The research has been funded by Google.
As if two news items regarding problematic corporate behavior are not enough for one day, I had to bump into another too-good-to-miss story. It is reported that HP considers cat hairs as a biological hazard which voids the warranty of a  laptop. Considering the attractiveness of this story, one has to wonder how much time will it take for HP before they settle. Why can't companies learn more from Amazon about the right way to treat customers ? Why do corporations let the bottom line make them forget human values, such as common sense and social responsibility?



Sunday, December 11, 2011

Apple lost another front against Samsung, and gave their competitor a leg up...

The Australian high court has accepted Samsung's position in the Apple-Samsung patents war.

Although this is a seemingly technical step, and Apple's lawsuit is still on , the meaning of Samsung being able to sell its products is that Apple has not been able to prevent its competitor access to the market.

Apple might have been right in recognizing the threat Samsung poses on its leading position in the mobile gadgets market, but my personal feeling is that instead of hurting Samsung with its legal efforts, Apple has actually done Samsung a great service, by creating a Streisand Effect: the media attention has probably helped change the way Samsung's products were perceived and assist in their acceptance as products of an equal quality. 

the "xxx" domain and the first buyers

An AP story on the organizations purchasing the new "xxx" domain addresses has caught my attention.

The new ".xxx" suffix, is an adults-only variation, aimed at the differentiation of adult content from other types of contents. The .xxx names went on sale to the public for the first time this week, following a two months period, in which those who wished to protect their brands were the exclusive buyers. 

Turns out  schools and businesses trying to prevent their good names from falling into the hands of the pornography industry were actively purchasing many variations of ".xxx" website names. In Toto, during this preliminary deployment period nearly 80,000 names have been registered, among them -
  • www.hoosiers.xxx
  • www.KUgirls.xxx, www.KUnurses.xxx; 
  • Nike.xxx; 
  • Pepsi.xxx;
  • Target.xxx;
According to the report, some of the buyers consider this "a modest cost of doing business in the world we live in", while others think it is not ok that any organization "should have to pay to protect its trademarks".

Although it is understandable that new times will bring new cultivation techniques to the fields of Trademark management and cultivation, I find myself quite bothered by the fact that one has to purchase domains one has no intention what so ever of ever using them, just in order to protect one's good name. 

What do you think ? 

Monday, December 5, 2011

לעבוד בהייטק - אבל אחרת (טוב יותר)


דה-מארקר מספר על משנתה העסקית של חברת הסטרטאפ 37signals (מי שתרמה לעולם את התשתית של Ruby on rails).
כמה נקודות שאני סבור שכדאי לכל איש הייטק ישראלי לשמוע ולחשוב עליהן:
“רוב חברות הסטארט אפ שמוקמות בסגנון של חברות בעמק הסיליקון מוציאות המון כסף על משרד גדול ומפואר. אולי הן מפתחות כלים שלא דורשים שנשב זה ליד זה, אבל הן עובדות בטכניקות של המאה ה־19, שלפיהן כולנו צריכים לשבת באותו שולחן ולקיים ישיבה כל כמה שעות... משרד הוא הפרעות בלתי פוסקות. אינספור אנשים עוברים ליד השולחן שלך ורוצים שתראה את זה ותראה את זה, ואז יש פגישה, ואז אחרי הפגישה יש לך שעה עד שמישהו אחר מפריע לך, ומהר מאוד כל יום העבודה מתבזבז. כתיבה, עיצוב, תכנות - אלה פעילויות שהיכולת שלך לבצע אותן נפגעת אם מפריעים לך באמצע כל הזמן. הדבר היחיד שאני יכול לעשות ב־20 הדקות שבין הפרעה להפרעה הוא לבדוק את האימיילים שלי."
"...יותר מזיק לעבוד המון שעות. זה יוצר סביבת עבודה נוראית. אצלנו עובדים 40 שעות בשבוע, והאיכות של השעות היא הדבר הכי חשוב. אנחנו כל הזמן מנסים לעשות אופטימיזציה של תהליך העבודה. עבודה לא חייבת להיות לא נוחה וקשה. ליצור משהו בעל ערך ולרצות את הלקוחות שלך יכול להיות הרבה יותר כיף, אם במקום לתרץ לעצמך שתעבוד כמו חמור כי בעוד חמש שנים תפרוש, תתחיל לחשוב מה יקרה אם תצטרך לעבוד בעבודה הזאת ב־20־30 השנים הבאות”.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Software stealthily installed

Software stealthily installed on most modern Android, BlackBerry and Nokia phones secretly chronicles all user’s phone experience, ostensibly so carriers and phone manufacturers can do quality control, but chronicling includes for some mysterious reason even key logging, and all data is sent to the software manufacturer secretly.

Thinking I'm reminiscent of Orwell's 1984 ?  a little too paranoid ? Once again nagging about the significant impact cellphones can have regarding our privacy ?  


I'm seriously considering changing to anonymous pre-paid. 


Monday, November 28, 2011

Apple is no longer smart phone vendor #1

Apple is no longer vendor #1 in the global smart phone market. Long live Samsung, the new king!

I always knew this day will come.
Every open-architectures believer knew it deep in his heart.
And yet, I - like many others - feared that the chaos which freedom brings along will make close-architectures the survivor of the fittest in this stage of the information revolution.

Happily, the late Steve Jobs was wrong, and freedom and openness won this round as well. 

Sunday, November 27, 2011

crackdown

I used to think of major crackdowns as steps taken by law enforcement agencies against drug dealers, or other "blue color" criminals, involving police cars closing upon a scene, arrests being made and physical objects being involved.

A news item telling of the U.S federal authorities seizing more than a 130 domain names as part of an Intellectual Property crime fighting initiative, especially timed with the high tide of the holiday seasons shopping beginning, made me realize - once again - that times are changing. 

twine may computerize your furniture

Seven months ago, writing on the coming age of pervasive computing (all things computerized), I wrote that I don't think this age is here yet. I'm happy to say that I believe I was wrong.

A Techcrunch article taught me about Twine, an ingenious gadget, which may be the solution for making home equipment computerized.

Twine is a small rubber square which comes with WiFi connectivity and several possible sensors. It connects to a web app which enables programming the sensors to send messages when an even takes place. For example, you can glue the Twine to your laundry machine, and program the accelerometer to message that the laundry is over, when it no longer senses movement. Twine can SMS, Twitter, Email and send HTTP requests.

Techcrunch tells that "The basic Twine comes with an internal temperature sensor and an internal accelerometer, and the Twine guys are making optional external sensors including a magnetic switch for doors, a moisture sensor and a breakout board for those of you that want to create your own DIY sensor action. " There are clearly many possibilities for many sensors and many applications.

All of a sudden, it is not very complicated or expensive to make regular furniture and home equipment into computerized hardware. This is clearly not the whole solution. Developments in Robotics, electricity, electronics, communications, computing and above all - in design will make the computerized age much more an age of things being done than just data being transferred. But Twine is a clear step within the space of the pervasive age, and not just another leading to it.

Btw, you can be an early twiner. They are seeking funding on kickstarter

Friday, November 25, 2011

Siri vs. Tellme

Techau.tv, an Australian technology website, did a very lovely comparison of Apple's Siri and Microsoft's Tellme, which put the voice-operation capabilities of representative competing smart phones to the test. This comparison is following a claim of Microsoft’s Craig Mundie (Chief Research and Strategy Officer) that Microsoft had similar capabilities in Windows Phone for more than a year. Viewing the video comparison  you are left with two possible conclusions-

  1. Microsoft's voice recognition technology still sucks. 
  2. Someone made an unfair comparison, and used a well-trained iPhone with an untrained Windows 7 phone. 
As I've been playing around with Windows 7 voice operation capabilities for a while (on a desktop), I suspect that both explanations are true. I've seen better performance from Windows than displayed in this comparison, and therefore I suspect there is a deep difference in the training level of both smart phones (training=letting the voice recognition system study your speech patterns). But I have seen it making some wonderful blunders, even after some training hours invested.... I can't say that Siri answered all the fantasies I've been developing hearing the hype around Apple's new development, but one has to admit that at least on this Video, it sure looked as one sexy technological advancement.  If I were in Microsoft's shoes, I'd be working harder than trying to sell Siri as a marketing mirage. 

Sunday, November 20, 2011

is Facebook decaying ?

An interesting article by CNET's Molly Wood criticizes the new news sharing model of Facebook. As it happens frequently, the dialogue which developed in the talkback section is just as interesting and enlightening as the article itself.

Naturally, one cannot make serious conclusions based on public opinion as expressed in talkbacks, because you cannot get a reliable statistical sample. But just like other forms of opinion polls, that article and the people who felt a need to respond to it, mostly in a supportive manner, appear to wave a very important flag for Facebook: news feeds are become over loaded with irrelevant information and digital clatter. It appears that the same steps which were intended to get a maximum output from the Social Graph, might threaten the integrity of the social network.

Facebook has displayed so far an impressive flexibility and adaptability,  but once again, just like regarding privacy, a clear conflict of interests arises. While Facebook aspires for heavily-loaded news feeds, Users aspire for interesting and meaningful news feeds. A gentle balance has to be maintained, and as Facebook's IPO may be coming nearer, it might be that the pressure to display a nice financial display will make that balance impossible to keep.

But lets not be overly critical here. Facebook is in a sense one of the greatest scientific experiments going on nowadays. It might be a long term phenomena, just as computing. It might be a short term phenomena, Just like its predecessor, myspace (still alive, still declining). No one can really tell what is the best strategy for the creature called the-largest-social-network-ever, until after such a strategy has been tried and tested.

Time will tell... 

Monday, November 7, 2011

surfing the net

During a small unrelated research, I've suddenly ran into a question I haven't wondered about before: who coined the term "surfing the net". Another one of those terms which surprisingly did not rise of their own accord. It turns out Librarian Jean Armour Polly is responsible for the term, as she herself tells about it, it came to her while writing an article on the experience of using the young early '90s internet, and searching for a term that will express the fun, the skill and the endurance needed, as well as a term that would evoke a sense of randomness, chaos and some danger. Thus was coined the term "Information Surfer". 

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Turns out Apple almost had Kinect..... but missed it ....

An interesting bit of ancient history (2008), tells how Apple missed an opportunity to purchase  the technology that is currently named Kinect by Microsoft.

One would claim that people in Apple were getting to rigid for their own good, but considering the work done in Apple at the time on the iPad, it is probably an example of an old principle: you can't do everything in the same quality. Focus, as a key to success, means there will be failures and mishaps and bad decisions.

At least for now, it seems that Apple's focus was better in those years than Microsoft. Will the future prove that Kinect was such a great miss? or was Apple's focus the better one?

Only time will tell...

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

a most passionate software engineering text about services, Google, Amazon and the world

Google engineer Steve Yegge had some really interesting thoughts to share about Google, Amazon and the way computing is going, in his mind, today. Sadly, he no longer shares it with the world outside of Google. Happily, it can still be found at minyanville.com. Don't let the headline mislead you. This isn't about Google+ or social networks. This is about the way software engineering is done at Amazon, isn't done at Google, and should be done, according to Yegge.

I don't agree with everything written there, but it is probably the most passionate software engineering text I've read in recent years, and as such, in my mind, will be of interest to anyone who finds technology, software and the internet interesting.

[remark: happily, it seems Steve is still employed at Google, despite the unintended forum being exposed to his rather blunt criticism. It seems like he is trying to do some damage control, wisely, and his most recent post is interesting in itself, telling a little more of the culture of Amazon, and of Jeff Bezos (a.k.a The dread pirate Bezos)] 

Monday, October 24, 2011

Amazon showing good business sense, and a great customer experince

Anyone following my blog would know that I like Amazon. I think they are a wisely managed business, They have an amazingly efficient supply chain which makes the customer experience amazingly pleasant, and an obviously robust and sturdy IT infrastructure which makes this bundle very appealing - both in the eyes of the economic analyst and in the eyes of the occasional consumer. But taking an occasional look at reddit, the alleged "front page of the internet" I was glad to read there a story of a positively surprised customer being reimbursed by Amazon as his shipment was lost (by no fault of Amazon).  Here is the chat. Read it, for this is truly nice to see such level of responsibility taking -


RAID nicely explained

Every now and then one finds oneself trying to explain technical terms to newbies (at large or to system management/hardware),  or the technically challenged. RAID is one of those common topics, and even nowadays as SANs and NASs make system administrators lives easier, it is still one of the building blocks of storage knowledge.

One of my favorite technology sites, The Geek Stuff has supplied an excellently simple explanation of the difference between the different RAID levels, and a specific RAID01-RAID10 comparison, both which are worth remembering.

One additional point - As always, nothing is perfect, and for the real newbies, those explanations require some former acquaintance with the terms striping, parity, mirror and blocks... That's life, TANSTAAFL.

Sunday, October 23, 2011

politics and technology

As Tunisia goes to vote, with the hope that this will lead to a fully functional democratic society in this early bird of the Arab spring, one should also notice the role technology suggests in the implementation of the political discourse. It may very well be that the internet did not only assist in the formation of the popular protests but that it will also assist in the structuring of a truly democratic discourse. 

are Facebook's power users defecting ?

As time goes by, it seems that not only is Google+ better than the late buzz, but that it is an actual threat to Facebook, as power users prefer Google+ and twitter. Knowing that social networks can fall even after reaching unprecedented peaks, as was Myspace's case, is probably Facebook's best asset. Now it only remains to see how well does that knowledge drive the competing players... 

Friday, October 21, 2011

המקומות הטובים ביותר לעבוד בהם בעמק הסיליקון

התעניינתי לקרוא  מאמר בtechi על מקומות העבודה הטובים ביותר בעמק הסיליקון והדרך שבה המקומות האלה מנסים לדאוג לעובדיהם.  מה שהיה מגניב במיוחד במאמר היה טבלת ההשוואה הגרפית, ממנה אצטט לדוגמה רק את החלק שאותי תמיד מפתיע לרעה בישראל, תמיכה בחופשת הלידה, עזרה בטיפול בילדי-העובדים והתעבורה לעבודה:


כאמור, טבלת ההשוואה הגרפית גדולה הרבה יותר, והייתי שמח לראות פעם מקבילה ישראלית מהסיליקון ואדי, רצוי בגירסא תחרותית....



Monday, September 26, 2011

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

has google found a cure for the patent war ?

Google is purchasing Motorola Mobile, and at least in part, this seems like a very logical step, considering past statements  and the ongoing patents war. Undoubtedly, Motorola's portfolio will make a significant weapon in Google's legal toolbox, and might actually serve as a modern peace-maker.

It is remarkable how contradictory people can be when relating this step. Some criticize this move, as profit margins in hardware are lower, but at the same time, praise the move as it appears to them as a move towards the unified hardware/software vendor model of Apple, which is known to be more profitable than Google's partners' model of using a free O/S. somehow, the simple notion that profitability is a result of a pricing model and not necessarily a production model, has not been considered by these critiques.

Others seems to think that Google is 'picking a fight' with Apple, and appear to ignore the dynamics of this patent war, which appeared more like Apple, Microsoft & Oracle cooperating against the new kid on the block.Well, now that the new kid also has a patents whip of his own, maybe We'll finally some innocent usage of patents, and at least a temporary break from misuse of Intellectual property as a tool to prevent competitive innovation.

Another point that should be taken is Motorola's leading position in other technological fronts. This just might turn out to be the winning move of Google's at the Internet-TV front....

As for the question whether this will cause other Android-based vendors to develop alternatives, one has to admit that the unified praising choir of vendors did not appear to be spontaneous, and although Motorola's purchase is probably improving the strength of the Android ecological sphere in the near term, the longer term does raise questions in that aspect. But these are good questions, for open smart phones that support more than one operating system, are in the best interests of consumers. Nothing good comes out of the monolithic model of Apple. We should all hope that Android vendors shall choose the path of the PC, and not that of the MAC. 

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Facebook-Zynga and the plain netizen

Due pre-IPO process is bringing discoveries of the intricate and close relationship between Zynga and Facebook. Platform developers, starting with Game-oriented ones, but actually anyone with basic deduction abilities, should consider their options. As others have plainspoken, it just appears that Zynga is getting such a special treatment at Facebook, others do not enjoy fair play.

This naturally should be a warning sign to us all. Facebook, the largest social network, at least for now, is not fully aware to the responsibilities that come with a great power (yes, I'm paraphrasing on Spiderman, being loyal to Snoopy's principle of quoting truth wherever I find it), or worse - it prefers interests over principles.

The re-emergence of an alternative, in Google+, is highly important in such a reality, but it is not enough. Google+ should make clear that it will keep a neutral playing ground. Facebook should follow the same path. Otherwise, what promises the Global dream of an alternative to the Nation-State will turn out as just another playground for Corporations, in their ongoing search for larger gains.

I, for one, will not use any of Zynga products until such a change occurs. I urge you to act similarly. 

Saturday, July 30, 2011

Microsoft taking off their gloves ?



One has to point out that despite the great improvement in Microsoft's promotional Videos, the comparison  between a paid service and a advertisement-based service, at least as far as my 2 cents go, still gives Gmail the upper hand. 

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Nokia's Chinese experiences and their lesson

An interesting article on Seeking Alpha by Shaun Rein (of China Market Research Group) caught my attention. It analyses Nokia's difficulties in China, and illustrates some important points regarding the Chinese market:
"Nokia made the mistake of not understanding that the Chinese are no longer price sensitive for many products, and often buy products to show off...after a house or car, the mobile phone is the most prized possession for a majority of consumers. For many Chinese who cannot afford a house or a nice car, the mobile phone becomes the status symbol to show off"
According to the article, the battle is far from being over:
  1.  Nokia has a much better distribution network, and this is still major advantage over Apple, as the recent fraudulent-Apple-store affair teaches us. 
  2. The turnover frequency of Smart phones in China is overwhelming: "younger, upper middle class Chinese consumers change their mobile phones every nine to twelve months...These consumers are also not particularly brand loyal when buying phones. They look for the latest, hottest phone that will confer status on them, and many still remember Nokia’s status as king from just three years ago. This gives Nokia an opportunity to roll out new phones in more areas before Apple is able to penetrate the market."
    Even if middle class and lower economic class consumers cannot afford changing their smart phones every year, they will probably still change them in the fastest frequency possible. In Israel, for example, mobile-operators, who also serve as smart phone distributors, try to dictate a changing rate of 18-24 months.   
  3. Despite my recent admission in my mistaken analysis of Apple's current competitive edge, I still believe that Apple does have that tragic hero streak of making a fundamental mistake just when it is in the lead, and that such a mistake will take place in the coming 2 to 4 years (assuming it has not been made yet, without public recognition).  This of course does not mean Nokia will prevail. There are enough Android-based players competing for the Chinese holy grail, who might use Apple's theoretically coming mistake for their own maximization of market share... 
Summing up, we can deduce some wider lessons, which I believe apply to consumers all over the globe:
  1. Smart phones are not your regular Information commodity. They are a status marker (or maybe even Status maker?)
  2. The emotional-social role of smart phones changes consumer behavior. Consumers are much less price-sensitive than they used to be in the traditional PC/laptop days. This is probably also a strong incentive for consumers to replace their smart phones again and again.
  3. lessons 1&2 probably have some bearing on other modern mobile gadgets, like the tablets. 

    Sunday, July 24, 2011

    Apple continues to increase its PC market share

    Readers of this blog will probably have fun with this one. I've expressed my doubts in the past regarding Apple's future stance in the market, But Apple's recent performance has been so convincing, I'm searching for a saltshaker.

    Seems like Steve Jobs has finally done it: despite the rise in tablets and smart phones, Apple is only seeing a significant rise in Mac's purchases.

    This can mean only one thing: people are not deserting the PC in general. They are deserting the old generation of PCs. And at least for now, Apple is able to be a leader in all 3 fronts:

    • smart phones
    • tablets
    • desktops.

    I'll make this post short, as I have to  use that saltshaker and contemplate the wider implications while eating my hat. 

    where does the data of the world reside ?

    אסטרטגיה צבאית במרחב האינטרנטי

    הולכים ומסתמנים הסימנים לכך שהמרחב וירטואלי הולך והופך להיות שדה הקרב הבא. מצד אחד זה מאוד מעודד. כידוע, בעולם הוירטואלי אפילו אם מתים או נפצעים, תמיד אפשר לחזור מחדש. מצד שני, החיבור בין הוירטואלי לממשי הופך את שדה הקרב החדש הזה, למפחיד יותר מכל קודמיו.... 

    התגלו חיים ללא אינטרנט

    Thursday, July 7, 2011

    Google+ is no buzz

    As the days goes by, it appears that Google+, Google's new social network, is accepted enthusiastically. It is already described as superior compared to Buzz, its group video feature, Google hangouts, is described as a killer app (and considering what Facebook has to offer in that category, it is no wonder Facebook is trying to block people from bringing their friends to google+). What is probably most important is that Google+ is reported to be  a huge source of traffic, only one week into the limited field trial. Facebook is justly worried.

    [update, 20/7/2011: It appears that Facebook has gone beyond being worried. One cannot help but assume that Myspace's quick rise and demise in the face of Facebook, is what makes Facebook so hostile to the new network on the block]

    if you can't compete, pay the client for buying it

    the final power shift in the smart phones world ?

    There may be many reasons for a company that develops products for different platforms to choose one platform as its first environment for innovations. In many cases it is a simple reflection of the company's development environment. But I tend to think that  in the smartphone world, at the stage, preferring to release an innovation into the Android-based smart phones before doing so in the iPhone space, is a revolutionary step. Foursquare's choice to release their recent development "Notifications", for Android based smart phones, after years of iPhone-first, is a clear indication that Android has matured enough,  and iPhone's years of technological dominance, enjoying his first-real-smart-phone-to-be-around status, have come to a clear end.
    Very much like other stages at Apple's history, this is a sad stage for the innovative company. Once again, Apple's choices are leading her to a small market share, which not only lacks the cost/benefit edge, but also the technological leadership edge. 

    is online sharing growing or is it a mirage ?

    Mark Zuckerberg the trends in Facebook, and claimed that Online Sharing is growing at an exponential rate, and that 4 Billion items are shared each day on Facebook.
    As much as the description and numbers are impressive,  I'm afraid this statement should be taken with a grain of salt. During that event Zuckerberg has revealed that Facebook has reached the 750,000 active users milestone this month. Divide 4 billion by that active users number, and you get an average of 4 items per user per day. Now, lets recall that many sharing-events are automatic updates by users, and that some users are more active than others, and things appear less impressive.
    Considering my own personal experience at Facebook, things appear as if the social network has reached a static stage in its development.
    It surely has to do with its maturity, and the way privacy definitions have finally been realized and are used  by the social network users (one rarely sees nowadays the embarrassing information sharing messages of the past). There are probably sub-networks that are more active than others, with a different nature than the sub-network I'm familiar with. And yet, while one has to respect the immense technological challenge of supporting an active community of such magnitude, which produces such a daily output, one also has to wonder what part of this immense output, be its growing rate expanding or static, is actually useful.    

    Microsoft most successful mobile project is still Android

    As time goes by and Microsoft's smart mobile phone still lags behind competitors, Microsoft's ability to earn profits from its competitors, Android-based smart phones, makes one wonder whether Microsoft's vested interests in Android aren't actually making Android Microsoft's preferred Mobile operating system... 

    Wednesday, July 6, 2011

    age and entrepreneurship

    When you think about the image of entrepreneurship in modern media, one tends to think of young entrepreneurs.

    Bill GatesSteve JobsSergey Brin, Larry Page and Mark Zukerberg are all examples of entrepreneurs who started their way to success in their twenties, and reached early & HUGE success very soon after the beginning of their entrepreneurship.

    But these amazing success stories (and there are many others), which may cause some "elderly" persons after the age of 30 to feel like they have arrived late to the game, should be taken with a grain of salt.

    Two facts in a Business Insider report of  the findings of a 2009 survey caught my eye:

    • 80% of entrepreneurship activity is being made by persons above 35. 
    • In 'high-growth' industries, "people over 55 are nearly twice as likely to launch startups". 

    Seems like it is never too late to become an entrepreneur.

    Monday, July 4, 2011

    You can't have a gmail account if you are under 13

    Martin Sutherland, on his blog "Legends of the Sun Pig" told how Google made his son cry. It turns out Google is really serious about not letting people who are not allowed to enter a binding contract, enjoy their services.

    I was surprised to discover that the official age in which one can enter a binding contract in the U.S is (in most states) 18 (if that Wikipedia article seems cumbersome, try reading about the majority age here, it is better summarized). In Israel the approach is more sophisticated, and a minor's capacity is judged by the type of transactions youth of his age are commonly involved in, instead of a strict age line. I was further surprised to discover that this entire Google-Age dilemma is old internet news , but I was mostly surprised to realize that Google is brave enough to let persons above 13 use their services despite the formal majority age, but not brave enough to let persons under 13 enjoy their services, even with parental consent.

    And lets all remember - when we are talking about Google's services, we are talking first and foremost about SEARCH. Does Google really think it is reasonable that in this age of information, minors under 13 will not search the internet ? Does Google really think it is reasonable that in this day and age minors under 13 will not have an email ? Sometimes lawyers and law make even the most pure-intent organizations lose their right mind.

    Google, you are doing evil. Time to wake up, and adapt your Terms of Service. 

    Saturday, June 25, 2011

    an interesting week for Google

    One can't help but feel Empathy for Google this weekend, going over the media reports regarding the search giant. The high of the weeks was probably the reports of Google having reached a historical Internet Milestone in May: being the first website in the Internet's history to attract more than a billion unique visitors in a month. Sadly for Google, the week ended with the company confirming that  the US Federal Trade Commission has notified the company of a wide-scale investigation into Google's share of the Internet search & advertising market. Both reports mark the same direction for Google's coming years, and remembering Microsoft's history and the similarities, one cannot help but wonder whether we are seeing the tallest peak Google for the foreseeable future.
    Lets be clear about one point: as I've mentioned in the past in the blog, Microsoft is still prospering and it appears that it is still striving as hard as ever to gain its old dominance in a changing world. But regulatory attention of the kind Google is now getting in the U.S (European regulators have been paying close attention for quite some time now), makes competition & innovation so much harder, so it might just be that Google is going to find itself playing with one of its hands tied for some years now. 

    Tuesday, June 21, 2011

    the end of unlimited data plans

    News reports indicate that Verizon will follow AT&T and will no longer suggest "unlimited data" plans to new subscribers. It appears as if the developed world is adjusting its standards to those of the developing world.

    What will consumers do ? AT&T has not been reported to be suffering major losses of customers since the change. It is much safer to assume that now all major vendors have taken the eat-as-much-as-you-can option off the menu, consumers will continue this sheepish response.

    Will this trend also reach developing countries? As only recently discussed here, there are profound difference in mobile usage and role between developing and develop countries. In this aspect, it is really hard to say, but if I were to predict, I believe we will see differences here. To a certain extent, this can also be another indication of the current economic state of the U.S communications market.

    Still, once cannot help but feel that once a new technology becomes popular enough, there ain't no such thing as a free lunch.But does that mean that unlimited data should be taken off the table? or just properly priced ?

    [update: 5/7/2011 Verizon confirms unlimited data plans are soon to be dead]


    Thursday, June 16, 2011

    the mobile internet in the developed and the developing world

    I bumped into an interesting bit on seekingalpha, telling of the trends in the Mobile Internet around the globe. The interesting insight is the basic difference between the developed world, where land lines and consumer habits create a very different market than the developing world, where a consuming habit of pay-per-byte and a serious lack in land lines, makes mobile internet queen of the communication in those countries. As always, such analyses should be taken with a grain of salt, but it is definitely worth reading. 

    מדוע אי אפשר לראות תמונות טובות של ישראל ב Google Earth ?

    PCMagazine, בעזרת Mother Jones, פותר חידה שכל משתמש ישראלי בGoogle Earth בוודאי שם לב אליה: היות הרזולוציה של מפות ישראל פחות מוצלחת משל איזורים אחרים בכדור-הארץ. כמובן שחשדנו, והסיבה הפורמלית שהובהרה סוףסוף אישרה החשד:  הנחיות של משרד ההגנה האמריקאי להן כפופות חברות אמריקאיות קובעות איסור לעשות שימוש בתמונות של ישראל ברזולוציה של יותר מפיקסל למטר. על פי הכתבה האיסור נוגע לתמונות שמקורן אמריקאי, ולכן ב-2013, כשלוויין טורקי עתיד לספק תמונות באיכות גבוהה, יוכלו חברות אמריקאיות כמו Google לעקוף את ההנחיות (בהנחה שהן לא תעודכנה או אם תעודכנה לא תעמודנה במבחני הפסיקה האמריקאית) ולהציג תמונות מפורטות של ישראל.

    פותחים גישה לידע האנושי

    נתקלתם פעם במאמר מדעי וגיליתם שכדי לקרוא אותו אתם נדרשים לשלם ? מאמר מאלף בהארץ מספר על תנועת הגישה הפתוחה (the open access movement) השואפת להעניק לציבור הרחב גישה חופשית לידע האקדמי, שכיום נמצא מאחורי הסורג והבריח של ה-$, בשל מודל הקניין הרוחני על ידע אקדמי. הצלחתם - הצלחתנו. 

    Sunday, June 5, 2011

    ממסתרי הכרוכית (@)

    מאמר מאלף במגזין חיים ברשת של נענע מלמד על ההיסטוריה הנשכחת של ה@. מתברר שהסיבה האמיתית להכללתו במקלדת היא עבור מנהלי החשבונות. משמעותו המקורית של ה-@ היא מחיר ליחידה אחת.
    כלומר, בתפישה של @ כחלק אינטגרלי בחיינו במשמעותו הישנה, אם אני מכין מסמך שבו אני כותב "נרכשו 5 עפרונות במחיר 10 $" כוונתי היא שכל עפרון עלה 2$, והסה"כ הוא 10$. לעומת זאת אם אני כותב "נרכשו 5 עפרונות במחיר @2$" אני מבהיר שהמחיר הוא ליחידה אחת, והסה"כ 10$. על פי המאמר, כשפיתחו את הדואר האלקטרוני ביקשו להשתמש בתו איזוטרי שרבים לא עושים בו שימוש, וקפצו על ה-"@"  כמוצאי שלל רב, בהתחשב באפשרות לייחס לו את המשמעות של "at".
    סביר להניח שנענע לא עשו מאמר מקורי, אלא נעזרו במאמר הבא מהwebopedia, אבל כל מאמר שמעשיר את קוראי האינטרנט העברי בהיסטוריה של המיחשוב מבורך.

    [עדכון: רגע אחרי שפרסמתי הפוסט, הצצתי בויקיפדיה, ובעוד הערך העברי דל משהו ונסמך במידה רבה על המקורות שהוזכרו כאן, ככל הנראה, הערך האנגלי משובב נפש]. 

    Thursday, May 26, 2011

    ניתוח ? אוי... מממ.... מה זה אומר בעצם ?

    הכללית ממשיכה ביוזמה הברוכה של העצמת המבוטחים-המטופלים על ידי אספקת מידע בצורה בהירה, והחלה ביצירת הסברים מפורטים בנוגע לניתוחים נפוצים  - ניתוחי לב, ניתוחי עיניים, ניתוחים גניקולוגיים ועוד.
    שלא נזדקק, אבל טוב לדעת שיש.

    וזו עוד דוגמא לדרך שבה מהפכת-המידע משנה את העולם. 

    Friday, May 20, 2011

    בכל זאת יש בה משהו

    דה מארקר דיווח שהפטנטים של מודו ז"ל נמכרו תמורת 17 מיליון ש"ח בתהליך של התמחרות.
    קשה לקבוע האם מדובר בעוד הוכחה ליתרונות של הליך התמחרות על פני שיטות מכירה/מימוש אלטרנטיביות, או בעוד הוכחה לערך הרב שהיה טמון במה שהיתה יכולה להיות נוקיה הישראלית.
    חבל על דאבדין. 

    Thursday, May 19, 2011

    קסם הגחלילית ומאמרים שאולי היה מוטב להם שיעברו עריכה יסודית

    נתקלתי בכתבה בדה-מארקר שמספרת על מאבקן של חברות פיירפליי ומג'יק סביב מערכות הסבה אוטומטית של יישומים שנבנו במג'יק לסביבת דוטנט. איך נאמר (בעדינות) ? לפעמים זה כל-כך ברור שמישהו שכתב או ערך או הגיה כתבה לא הבין את התחום ולא בקיא בהיסטוריה של התפתחות התוכנה, שאין לקורא אלא לרחם ולחמול.  ובכל זאת, המאמר שווה קריאה, בהיותו סיפור שמדגים היטב את הדרך שבה מיזמי תוכנה המושתתים על שיתוף פעולה יכולים להידרדר לכדי מאבק משפטי, שלא מועיל לאף אחד מהצדדים.

    ומי שלא מכיר הנושא, אך רוצה להיות מסוגל לדבר על הנושא בלי להישמע עילג במיוחד, כדאי לו לקרוא (כמבוא כמובן) את הערכים הויקיפדיים של - 

    Tuesday, May 10, 2011

    Microsoft is going to buy Skype ? what for ?

    Seems like Microsoft just decided to take off the gloves and fight it seriously over the mobile gadgets arena. The news about Microsoft purchasing Skype might appear weird to people knowing Skype's problematic nature as a source of income, or to the appearing lack of connection between Skype's play-ground and Microsoft's entangled web, but you don't need a crystal ball to see the future in this case.

    Just like in the old Browsers war, Microsoft has realised it has let itself fall too far behind in quality, and now when it finally has a reasonable product at hand, in the image of windows 7, it has to take drastic measures to bring back the masses, less it wall fall to oblivion in the mobile world. And the next step is simple, ingenious, and unless it is unreasonable failed by regulatory authorities, it is going to be Microsoft's winning Ace, as it will head back to the center of the mobile-world.
    Microsoft is going to use Skype to give windows 7 mobile users all around the globe the best cost-benefit solution. And with Skype at hand, and a huge pile of money in its safes to pay the mobile-infrastrutcutre companies, who can compete a zero (or near-zero) cost windows 7 mobile phone ?

      

    Wednesday, April 20, 2011

    robot journalists

    a new hope for file-sharers around the globe: the emergence of a new religion

    torrentfreak has a very interesting story about the emergence of a new religion: kopimism, which aims at spreading the new gospel: Thou shall copy all around.

    The collision of competing liberal values is always a sight worth watching. One does not have to ponder much to asses which shall win - private property or religious tolerance, but it is a very nice attempt. 

    Tuesday, April 19, 2011

    now, that is what i call useful user feedback

    Wired reports that Google is asking U.S residents to help complete & correct its Maps. Google MapMaker is the tool for this job, and as an Israeli, all I can say is that we impatiently wait for our turn at correcting some of the online maps of the Holy-land.

    When we talk about user input, the modern web and the roles of users in generating input, Mapmaker is a great example of the the way mass feedback can improve shared knowledge.

    Maps, in a way, are a demonstration of the usefulness and elegance in which knowledge can be summed up in a universally clear manner. If only we could find more tools like maps, to handle the floods of data the information revolution has created.... 

    Friday, April 15, 2011

    the wonderful world of guano

    Sometimes you bump into something on the Internet, and find yourself humming "mmm.... what do you know....I'd never thought this issue could be so broad".

    The cause for this evening's humming, was my encounter of the Wikipedia article about Guano.  Personally, I did not know much about this stuff, and was exposed to its existence only in Jim Carrey's Comedy Movie Ace Ventura: when nature calls.

    But this Eve's venture into Wikipedia-editing (something I occasionally sin at) was quite rewarding, at least as far as Esoteric Knowledge goes. I also learned about the USA Guano Island Act, an act legislated in response to the mid 19th century Guano Crisis, and about many Guano island claims made under that act.

    It is discoveries of this nature that make the Internet so wonderful. One goes out on a random search for knowledge (with the possibility of improving that source of knowledge), and finds oneself enriched in bits of information one will probably never have any use to, but which are still making life more interesting.

    I guess it is time to go to sleep...

    Thursday, April 14, 2011

    Google +1 is here, and it is a Facebook competitor

    Google has launched "+1",  a competing feature to Facebook's "Like", in the web-content ranking category. Tech-Site NewsGrange has doubts how popular this service will become, without a social network to be the target of this ranking.
    My first thoughts were similar. It seemed like Google has launched this service despite its failure in the social networks field, out of despair, fearing to lose further ground to Facebook. But at a second glance, It might be a very smart move. Users may find the "+1" symbol more appealing for one or more of the following reasons -

    • the power and appeal of the Google brand over users; 
    • learned habits from other Google tools, like Youtube;
    • "+1" being more intuitive than "like";
    • Not wanting one's social network to be updated in every aspect of my life, but wishing to notify the world I "Liked something" so that more "somethings" of this category shall be made; 
    • "+1" and "Like" being services that enable a user to bookmark content he liked, for personal use; 
    • the random nature of user behavior;
    • the power and appeal of Google over the people who make web-content; 
    And if "+1" gets popular enough (and popular does not mean dominant at its first stage of life. Just large enough to be considered having a market share that shouldn't be ignored by greedy advertisers), it might just turn out that those Input gadgets are just as desirable in the eyes of social networks, as the content of social networks is desirable in the eyes of advertisers... 

    The last point to remember, in my mind, is that "+1" and "Like" are not relevant only to Social Networks, but to any virtual space where people have virtual Identities.

    So, taking everything into account, my personal estimate is that "+1" is going to give Facebook's "Like" a good run for its money. It might even win the race, without a Social Network standing behind its back.

    Now all that remains is to wait and see if I'm right, or if another hat will be added to one of my meals... 

    המשטרה בפלורידה משתמשת בסקייפ להוציא צוים כבר בזירת הפשע

    the important numbers of windows 7 mobile

    Microsoft tells of the REALLY important numbers of Windows 7 Mobile. I guess we'll just have to wait and see if they are right in the priority standing behind this story. The one thing I've learned over my years in the field of Information Technologies is Never Underestimate Microsoft. Never. 

    Wednesday, April 13, 2011

    protecting one's privacy from inference in data

    Techdirt has an interesting discussion on the importance and problematic nature of inference from data, that growing capability corporations have, as more data about us, consumers and citizens, is gathered. in a recent post the usage of such data from one's cellphone was demonstrated.

    Although it appears to be one of the necessary evils of the information revolution I believe that a solution to the growing uncomfortable feeling "too many entities know too much about me" will not be unpopular.

    I know that some might claim that I'm too old to accustom, but facts are that teenagers display a similar awareness to this issues and invent solutions which help them control the flow of information about them, at least where they can have some control.

    As the solution to which I have implied in the past, of hiding oneself completely, as suggested in Roger Zelazny's "My name is Legion", is quite hard to achieve, and bears with it a very high price,  It is high time for the development of a "privacy shield", some technological solution to protect one's privacy, when needed and wanted. Something like the scramble suit of Bob Arctor in Philip K. Dick's Book "A scanner darkly" (you might have seen the movie).

    Now, how do you develop such a technological feat ?

    התנ"ך במרשתת

    פרוייקט מעניין וחשוב - כותבים את התנ"ך באמצעות האינטרנט. רעיון מעניין של ממשלת ישראל, שבהחלט מהווה דוגמא יפה כיצד אפשר לנסות ולקרב נפשות לתנ"ך.
    אני כבר בחרתי לי פסוק ו'כתבתיו'. ואתם ?

    (קרדיט כיאות: שמעתי אודות השקת הפרוייקט הודות לבלוג "רשימות מן התיבה הלבנה" של יהודה בלו)

    IE10 preview 1 is already here

    As if Internet Explorer 9 hasn't been shipped just recently, Microsoft continues its strategic adoption of HTML5, and its establishment as the leading player on the web, with the introduction of a first preview for Internet Explorer 10.

    Tuesday, April 12, 2011

    כתיבה כנשימה

    סקירה מעניינת בהארץ  של ספר חדש, "עברית אינטרנטית" (מאת כרמל וייסמן ואילן גונן) מעלה היבטים מעניינים על תרבות הכתיבה באינטרנט. הכתיבה באינטרנט מתברר,
    "משקפת אוריינות מסוג חדש. לא רק ידיעת קרוא וכתוב, אלא אוריינות מדיה ואוריינות מחשב ויכולות חדשות, כמו יצירת טקסט שיתופי. רצויה גם שליטה במיומנויות תנועה מורכבות, כמו הקלדה עיוורת". 
    לעומת זאת, על פי הכתבה, נראה שדווקא הכתיב הנכון הולך ונעלם מהעולם, ככל שעגות אינטרנטיות הולכות והופכות פופולריות.

    שווה קריאה. 

    Thursday, April 7, 2011

    Wikipedia and Politics

    I ran across a blog of a Wikipedia veteran, telling the tale of political values and the editing combats that surround them. Worth taking a look, for anyone interested in the dynamics of the internet communities. 

    Wednesday, April 6, 2011

    איך להציל את העולם באמצעות פוטושופ

    באמצעות פוסט של עו"ד יהונתן קלינגר העוסק בדיון בישראל לקראת בואו של Google Street View אלינו, למדתי על שימוש מופלא שנעשה בפוטושופ, לביטול אפקט טשטוש מסויים של תמונה, שאיפשר זיהויו של פדופיל.
    אז אולי בכל זאת אפשרי שימוש חיובי לטכנולוגיה שפוגעת בפרטיות  ?
    מממ...


    Sunday, April 3, 2011

    The problematic nature of the Cloud

    An Excellent article by Advocate&Blogger Jonathan Klinger, analyzing the risks of storing sensitive information on the cloud. A must read for anyone who plans deploying his storage to the cloud.

    Although I concur with the article's immediate conclusions, I personally believe that there is a current answer which is simple, straightforward, and cumbersome as ever - specific files encryption, before they get uploaded to any public storage, be it a "local" storage or an "on-the-cloud" location. 

    Saturday, April 2, 2011

    the problem with people nowadays is that they just don't have the patience to read it through....

    The Motley Fool, one of my favorite financial investing advisory services, announced it was offering a new service: a day-trading system it was secretly using and improving. Sadly, I've reached the Motley Fool's April Fool's prank of this year too late. Thus I can't really boast that I'd known immediately it was a hoax. But considering some of the funnier bits of this joke, and the fool's past April 1st jokes, I believe I would have spotted it somewhere in the middle of my reading, even if I did not remember it was Fool's day.

    Therefore, I was quite surprised at the number of Fool members who admitted they have fallen for it and requested to join in on the Fool's new day-trading operation. It is really hard to explain, if one assumes rationality as a qualifier of financial investor. But even though I know financial markets display investor's emotions much more than investor's cold analysis, one has to suspect at least one of the following claims is required to explain a behavior that is not just irrational, but actually quite foolish:

    • People don't believe a word they are being told by advisory services they seek. Therefore, discovering that the Motley Fool supports short-term trades appeared like nothing to be suspicious of, despite the Fool's long history of long-term investment advocacy. It might be that they have suspected such a thing all along... 
    • Some people will always take a suggestion for a shortcut to richness, regardless of who makes the suggestion, the terms of the suggestion and its likelihood. It seems like people's brains shut down at the first glimpse of the imaginary accumulation of wealth. 
    • Some people do not learn from past lessons, and regardless of what happened only 365 days ago, they perform very similarly to newborns or toddlers, as far as experience and knowledge are required. One may explain this phenomena not by refusal to learn, but by being too submerge in the NOW, in the current doing, and thus the knowledge acquired in the past becomes worthless in any practical view.    
    But the one claim I'm sure of, is also the most understandable. I don't believe anyone who  has meticulously read the Fool's faked documents, prepared for this April 1st Jest, could have fallen for it. Therefore, it is clear that people did not do a thorough reading of the documents they were provided with, before making the decision to join the new service. 
    The fact that financial investors, who should be aware of the importance of costs at the process of making profits from investing, make such rash decisions, and do not invest their time wisely in reading, is just another proof that the main problem with people of our age is that they don't read properly. It might be that the burden of the information revolution has taken that ability away. It might be that they are just too tired, or too stressed. As jokes always carry a lesson with them, I think that this joke's lesson is simple: To make sure that the offer you are given is not a joke on your account, read it through. 

    Saturday, March 26, 2011

    Hiring frenzy in California... when is it called a Bubble and when is it a real Growth burst?

    LA Times reports a high-tech hiring frenzy in California. As much as one is happy hearing about the signs of economic recovery in the Golden State, one cannot avoid the internal whispering - these were the signs of the last high-tech bubble,  developing .

    I can add a personal testimony, from my own experience here in Israel - even though I've been working on a few startups of my own in recent years, and haven't sent my resume to recruiting agencies for quite some time now, I keep getting phone calls with job offers relating to one of my previous IT roles (DBA, Sys Admin, Programmer, etc, etc...)

    So, as far as my intuition goes, I suspect (and fear) that the bubble trends of 1997-1999 are back in development.

    If only I had a crystal ball and could tell just if it is really a bubble and WHEN will the bubble burst...

    Wednesday, March 23, 2011

    Google books ran aground

    Just as things seemed to be going nicely for Google Books, came a  New York court and ruled that the deal would "simply go too far", giving Google an unfair competitive advantage. Just like in kindergarten, If Google was less greedy and let others participate in the game, it wouldn't have found itself in this mess.
    Looks like it is high time to let others play with the books already scanned, if Google wants to stop this magnificent effort from going to waste... 

    Thursday, March 17, 2011

    why limitations of the functionality of PCs, mobiles, gadgets & networks are dangerous

    Guardian's Cory Doctorow wrote an enlightening piece, analyzing  the risks and cons of the repeated steps made by Software and Hardware vendors around the world aiming to prevent Intellectual property (IP) thefts and other mischiefs. The brings an excellent summary of current and near-future steps which more than assist IP owners, hurt the users of the products. I'll quote the gist immediately, but If you intend to read one article this month about IT, this is the one:

    "For reasons good and bad, the things we rely on for our jobs, our political organising, our family affairs, our social lives and our cultural transactions are being rebuilt to control us and spy on us.
    For each of these control measures, the question isn't whether they'll fail, but when they will, and who will hijack their capabilities. Virus writers have already noticed that their malicious software can get a free ride if it targets digital rights management technology that hides itself from the operating system. Will it be an identity thief next? A dodgy "private investigator" who wants to read an MP's email over her shoulder? A totalitarian government that wants to broadcast the kill-signal to phones being used to organise mass demonstrations?"

    Google's crisis response team - how IT organizations CAN help in disasters

    One of the most frustrating things about work at Information Technologies, is that one is mostly  limited to Information services that have little impact in real time crises. The Google Crisis Response Team sets an example of how Information Technologies can really make a difference in the days following huge disasters. A cnn story tells how Google could set a Persons-Finder for the Japanese people a single hour after the Earth Quake. This is also a story about the creation of the response team, a story that can be a lesson to every IT organization in the world. IT is also of  the culture of Google's organization, a culture that can be summarized by Google engineer Prem Ramaswami, initatior and head of Google's crisis response team: 
    "I work at a very special place. No manager has ever told me that I had a day job."

    the age of pervasive computing is here

    The idea of computing becoming interwoven into every aspect of our lives has many names. The first and probably most known name "Ubiquitous Computing" was termed by the late Mark Weiser. Oliver Burkeman of the Guardian wrote a very interesting article dealing with his realization that the age of ubiquitous computing is now, and chose to head it with the catchy and controversial name "the internet is over".

    I recommend reading this piece, but have two remarks  - 
    1. I don't think that the age of all-things-computerized has arrived yet. How many people do you know who have computerized chairs ? paintings ? pens ? Only when the vision of the-internet-of-all-things shall be accomplished, can we start talking about life in that age. At the moment we are still dreaming. So Don't worry, the internet as a separate sphere is still not dead. And have no fear - it will not die. It will just engulf more parts of the world, until someday, somehow, the world and the internet shall be perceived as one. (Assuming, naturally, that the age of bow and arrow shall not return first, by man or by nature). 
    2. I think that a better name for the phenomena of all-things-around-us-becoming-computerized is pervasive computing. "Ubiquitous" does not pass the meaning of the process in which our generation, and probably the next one as well, live. "Pervasive" shall lose its relevance if & when then dream of all-things-computerized shall be fulfilled. I feel  that a really good name for the existence of all-things-computerized has not been suggested yet. I guess only the people who will experience life in that age, the ones who will know on their own flesh whether it is a wonderful dream or a nightmare, only they will know enough to choose the right name. 

    But it does not mean our generation cannot make some suggestions.... anyone has an idea ? 

    an important bit of computing history: the first PageRank patent

    You'll need to be both a lover of computing and of history to like this post:
    Bill Slawski of SEObyTheSea published a lovely post, which describes the application to the US Patent and Trademark Office for PageRank's first patent and includes a copy of that application.
    (PageRank, for those who aren't into Search, is Google's links-importance-assesment-algorithm which is the heart of Google's search engine).
    Slawski was kind enough to describe PageRank's path, as other patents were requested along the years since the first one, and gave a quick description of the last patent requested.

    Facebook has launched its coupon service

    Facebook is reported to have  launched its own coupon service. This is a great opportunity to test Facebook's real power. If this Social web's strength and value is as commonly accepted, then surely facebook will easily take groupon and other coupon players out of the market in a relatively short time. Lets say, one could quite assuredly estimate that one year from today, groupon and friends will either be purchased by Facebook's competitors, or way past their glory (somewhat like myspace, only in a much shorter time frame). If, on the other hand, the Coupon-Group-Organizing internet services shall remain independent and prospering, at least as well as Facebook's new service, people shall have to seriously doubt their assesment of the strengths of the world's largest social network.
    Time will tell. 

    Friday, March 11, 2011

    the darker side of cellphones and the digital age

    In a world that is falling in love with location-based services the following critique will probably sound old-fashioned and laughable.

    Still, we should all remember that each and everyone of us who carries a cellphone is being tracked constantly by the cellular phone companies. Thanks to NY Times I learned of a great story by Zeit Online, telling of a very nice demonstration given by Malte spitz of the German green party regarding the meaning of meta-data kept by cellular phone operators:


    • This demonstration, "Naturally", required that Spitz had to file a suit against telecommunications giant Deutsche Telekom just to get this information... 
    • 35.831 bits of location information have been gathered by the cellular phone company  between  August 2009 and February 2010.   
    • These bits, put together,  provide a clear picture of a person’s habits and preferences.  For example: they tell at what cities he visited and when; whether he  walked  or took a train; when he worked, when he slept and when his phone was unavailable. It shows when he  talked on his phone and when he preferred to send an SMS.... and more.... 
    • When you add this data to the bits of data flowing loose on the internet (Facebook, Twitter, blogs, forum posts, news items, etc, etc), You get to know a person's life.


    The future is here and now, and I think I'm going to start shutting down my cell phone more often...

    [update, 20/4/2011: Techdirt has a story about smart phones apps using the camera and microphone to gather information, without users knowing it. The uses reported appear to be legitimate. The implications are really scary]. 

    Facebook rolls out anti-bullying tools

    Life in the social network can be rough sometimes, as unpleasant people allow themselves too much under the anonymity veil of the internet. Facebook is taking steps in the right direction with recent announcements off  anti-bullying tools that are being rolled out

    Thursday, March 3, 2011

    a tale of many windows upgrades

    Winrumors points to a cute video displaying a set of upgrades starting with Microsoft Windows 1.01 up to Windows 7. This is definitely one video worth the 10 minutes of watching, if you've  spent time installing more than one version of windows, and you belong to one of us - the geeks who sigh a nostalgic sigh as they view the evolution of Windows and enjoy the running gag of attempting to execute Doom II on each version... 

    A small comment: Those with a sharp eye will notice that they guy who did this magnificent piece missed Windows ME. Some claimed it was due to the buggy nature of that Operating system. I do not agree. Such a feat of upgrading from such old operating systems can be done today only via a virtual machine (otherwise the earlier versions, as Windows95, will probably panic meeting the new and alien hardware). As I've had my share of old operating systems installtion in virtual machines (as told about in at least one occasion in this blog), I know that Windows ME gives a really troublesome time to anyone who tries to install it in a virtual machine. I believe it has something to do with the way it handles hardware, but never got to the bottom of this, as ME installation games in virtual environments were more of a doodling around with virtual capabilities than anything someone really needed. I believe the guy who made this video encountered the same problem, and didn't think it worth while. 

    is the tablet a pc or something else ?

    BusinessInsider reports of Steve Jobs speech in his surprising appearance on the iPad2 event.  declares:  

    "Our competitors are looking at this like it's the next PC market. That is not the right approach to this. These are post-PC devices that need to be easier to use than a PC, more intuitive. The hardware and software need to intertwine more than they do on a PC. We think we're on the right path with this."
    Two points are clear from this speech and from the evolving Tablet reality: 
    1. Steve Jobs continues Apple's old perception of tight hardware/software relations which requires great control between software and hardware development, and is suitable with Apple's old close-model of software/hardware manufacturing. 
    2. Microsoft and Google, on the other hand continue the old PC model of separation between hardware manufacturers and software developers. The business insider bit tells of Microsoft's effort to transfer the foll Windows 7 to tablets, and of Google's efforts regarding its operating system. 
    I personally believe that open approaches beat the close approaches in the long run. This has also been the lesson in the last 40 years of computing. 

    Is this Apple repeating its eternal error ? or has the day of Jobs the prophet finally come ? 
    Only time will tell. You've got to admit it will be kind of nice to watch, with all those new tablets expected to come out this year...